TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,336,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,354,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,336,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 799 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes42c187,511$78,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,873.262,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No63c186,332$118,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,086.644,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No57c131,697$74,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,946.7456541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No56c81,039$45,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,657.1515441.6%64 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes43c79,315$34,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,105.3921343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Yes44c64,522$28,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,239.5723942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes43c52,500$22,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,569.9213543%58 W · 77 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Yes37c50,000$18,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,499.9814843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c48,866$21,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,171.888,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f00…73cebacked Yes36c41,502$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0005728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No56c35,671$19,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,695.4510740.2%43 W · 64 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked No58c33,643$19,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,197.8614553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked No57c33,244$18,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,295.8220448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No58c28,914$16,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,143.710056%56 W · 44 L+11.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes42c23,697$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00031644.9%142 W · 174 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed No67c22,380$14,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,459.2610562.9%66 W · 39 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No56c21,723$12,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,571.863,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed No57c20,000$11,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,569.9310653.8%57 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No58c19,714$11,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,344.433,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No53c17,500$9,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,224.9514139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes41c16,075$6,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,579.792,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No57c14,923$8,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,451.774,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1160…7d8abacked Yes0c14,766$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick29cpaid+60.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No58c14,084$8,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,876.052,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No58c13,520$7,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,741.51,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes43c13,429$5,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,820.12,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed No64c12,379$7,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.3613259.1%78 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Yes43c12,034$5,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,192.5825228.2%71 W · 181 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d5…7767backed Yes1c11,656$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.145244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Yes44c11,364$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00013036.2%47 W · 83 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No58c11,138$6,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,633.581,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes44c11,116$4,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,886.3873536.3%267 W · 468 L-32.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No57c11,000$6,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,709.921,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No58c10,914$6,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,573.491,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e45…5b61backed Yes45c10,894$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,902.236154.1%33 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed No61c10,737$6,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.8817550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No57c10,324$5,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.082,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes44c10,226$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,513.681,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Yes44c10,201$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,533.4187237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Yes44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40024526.5%65 W · 180 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f8…64c9backed Yes38c9,271$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50023224.1%56 W · 176 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes44c9,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,96017544%77 W · 98 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No56c9,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.9729646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes40c8,277$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.054,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes40c8,024$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.911,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes44c7,722$3,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,384.021,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No59c6,612$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.92,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked No59c6,588$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.9970244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked No57c6,500$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,79536247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Yes39c6,423$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.5137944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No59c6,262$3,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.21,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked No67c5,839$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.4611031.8%35 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes44c5,580$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.541,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3028…8621backed Yes44c5,085$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.593040%12 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Yes25c5,015$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.322,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10019150.3%96 W · 95 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Yes49c4,729$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.7720646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8866…a584backed Yes41c4,633$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.6115853.2%84 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes39c4,524$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.361,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a52…1a8ebacked No56c4,465$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.65038%19 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Yes42c4,381$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85021442.5%91 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e3…935dbacked Yes48c4,208$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005925.4%15 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.9829250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes43c3,906$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.379231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes44c3,751$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.051,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes44c3,662$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.365036.9%240 W · 410 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes35c3,645$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.52,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes41c3,645$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.621,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No56c3,541$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.918139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed No56c3,497$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.674663%29 W · 17 L+7.1wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No58c3,456$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.7347648.5%231 W · 245 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked No63c3,333$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.218543.8%81 W · 104 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Yes41c3,208$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.465219.2%10 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed No55c3,145$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.1758942.6%251 W · 338 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66e…47c5backed Yes39c3,001$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.113750.4%69 W · 68 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a79…0d92backed Yes43c3,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9915226.3%40 W · 112 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked No57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.9446546.7%217 W · 248 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6783…401abacked Yes43c2,922$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.985250%26 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No57c2,705$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.841,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Yes44c2,659$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17022752.4%119 W · 108 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed No54c2,654$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.8828042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21d5…442bbacked Yes50c2,619$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010949.5%54 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed Yes40c2,579$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.1563544.4%282 W · 353 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00da…d262backed Yes43c2,495$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0668045%36 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed No54c2,477$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.124341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No57c2,400$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.9925844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb157…0120backed Yes42c2,390$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.315042.7%64 W · 86 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29bb…3aa6backed Yes42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008235.4%29 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a0…faaabacked Yes42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e3e…6bb6backed Yes43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62a4…c680backed Yes43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018321.3%39 W · 144 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed No58c2,305$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.5397742%410 W · 567 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked No56c2,300$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01213860.9%84 W · 54 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes43c2,300$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98935036.3%127 W · 223 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Yes39c2,293$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.275335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7ebbbacked Yes44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed No60c2,250$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.4740655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Yes22c2,243$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.4236234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No57c2,211$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.831,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8a…cb94backed No61c2,201$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.5918056.1%101 W · 79 L+14.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.