Middle East · resolved market
ICC issues an arrest warrant for Netanyahu?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c0023f91b882dd7075deeace143f3559a45e91486733a4d64642081be605b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 74c | 4,422$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.11 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 4,130$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.72 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 17c | 2,648$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.56 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…d5c3backed No | 80c | 2,486$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 29c | 1,467$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 70c | 1,426$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.69 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 23c | 1,331$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.36 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…23d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,283$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 76c | 1,215$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.41 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 52c | 1,204$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.76 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,012$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 65c | 922.83$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.72 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 35c | 908.55$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 34c | 908.55$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d1…6150backed Yes | 30c | 855.19$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…e141backed Yes | 48c | 743.99$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 19c | 730$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 68c | 699.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5386backed No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0445…6c45backed Yes | 58c | 560.3$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 545.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 17c | 510$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 51c | 502.14$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.9 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 3c | 479.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 52c | 451.58$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 17c | 445.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 430.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 428$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 36c | 412.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 33c | 375$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 48c | 306.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes | 50c | 281.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked No | 72c | 276.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7ffbbacked No | 72c | 251$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 36c | 240$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…d06dbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed No | 54c | 181.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 179$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 35c | 161.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 74c | 155.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 50c | 148.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 16c | 135.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 31c | 116.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…ce9bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 50c | 78.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab7…7177backed Yes | 60c | 67.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f04…28d4backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…a235backed No | 54c | 55.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…d0dabacked No | 52c | 53.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked No | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…22e3backed Yes | 49c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…d91cbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 56c | 37.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…8545backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e2bfbacked No | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…0bf2backed Yes | 62c | 28.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…441ebacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d4…66fcbacked No | 52c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.