Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9410695e6246e4733653739eab8d73b85360662216b24837dd44ad10b20ddd0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 69c | 923.48$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.42 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 3c | 570.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed Yes | 32c | 206.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 38c | 202.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…0ab2backed No | 65c | 178$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…a189backed Yes | 37c | 164.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…0deebacked Yes | 35c | 154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…78a6backed Yes | 30c | 153$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed No | 68c | 141.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…9e70backed No | 69c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…4d6fbacked Yes | 31c | 133.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 128.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 68c | 108.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 94.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…e36cbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…8416backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 35c | 88.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…ab79backed No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…82ecbacked Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…8213backed Yes | 35c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…f970backed No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9225…a33fbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 65c | 56.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…d3ebbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…678abacked No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…d2b0backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…eb04backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…6818backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 54c | 37.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed Yes | 69c | 37.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…f126backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…8853backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…0a95backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…a187backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…2425backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…3987backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…c40cbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…d245backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…1388backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.