Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21051ba5fe9f277fd225070a252dde3d857f3f464fa986365d07f3a7dfd93a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 74c | 1,659$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.15 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,319$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 23c | 1,148$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.61 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,022$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 15c | 960.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 697.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…a189backed Yes | 33c | 500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 80c | 138.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 78c | 135.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…1931backed Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae6…14b4backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 27c | 79.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…3c5abacked No | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…a187backed Yes | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed No | 67c | 72.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda7…7389backed No | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…1766backed Yes | 51c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…c40cbacked No | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f26…e4c8backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7d…71dfbacked No | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…04fabacked Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…f99cbacked Yes | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…8213backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 49.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…54a9backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…ff41backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 77c | 23.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed No | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…8853backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.