Us Politics · resolved market
Will the election be called on Nov 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e3a18c6d91e872fe9acfaff758ecc1cbdf6d4b1acbdc18f8bef14076639aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 27c | 12,186$3,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.47 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 7c | 10,095$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…e9fabacked Yes | 20c | 6,449$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf109…a863backed Yes | 26c | 6,121$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked No | 80c | 5,270$4,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 17c | 4,930$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…0d9cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,990$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,523$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.21 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 17c | 3,257$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.48 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 18c | 3,099$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.09 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 26c | 2,418$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.08 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed No | 74c | 2,361$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…7773backed Yes | 24c | 2,068$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 1,933$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.24 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 19c | 1,564$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…5d06backed Yes | 24c | 1,495$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,481$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe1…f3cfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,270$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…6815backed Yes | 20c | 1,234$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked No | 80c | 1,184$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 9c | 1,183$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db0…8415backed Yes | 18c | 1,129$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…d690backed Yes | 19c | 1,105$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 27c | 1,090$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.59 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,077$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 79c | 1,070$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 19c | 1,049$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…94b7backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19c…f697backed Yes | 24c | 999.54$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +203.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 75c | 900$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Yes | 23c | 879.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fab…530ebacked Yes | 23c | 872.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…da76backed Yes | 69c | 798.56$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…7686backed Yes | 33c | 756.72$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…a6cfbacked No | 73c | 748.62$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…028ebacked Yes | 17c | 719.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…9f23backed Yes | 22c | 692.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 19c | 674.07$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…4774backed Yes | 23c | 662.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…aa2cbacked Yes | 20c | 604.54$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 20c | 600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 17c | 599.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 38c | 577.1$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 10c | 530.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…3249backed Yes | 19c | 518.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…0465backed Yes | 17c | 505.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…eda3backed Yes | 20c | 502.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…6d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…4023backed Yes | 29c | 481.57$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed Yes | 25c | 465.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 11c | 456.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…7be9backed Yes | 21c | 450.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d86…162cbacked Yes | 69c | 436.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 421.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 20c | 414.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 78c | 399.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 22c | 399.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…d22abacked No | 78c | 383$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…e83cbacked Yes | 25c | 383$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029f…1c69backed Yes | 30c | 373.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…8b27backed Yes | 34c | 371.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…30e3backed Yes | 22c | 370.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…ee92backed Yes | 30c | 368.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…38ebbacked Yes | 19c | 358.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…12d1backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…7a60backed Yes | 11c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…ec7ebacked Yes | 27c | 339.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 29c | 338$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…080fbacked No | 79c | 316.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…12f8backed Yes | 18c | 310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…3ea3backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…49e6backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 275.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed Yes | 34c | 262.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 73c | 255.28$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 19c | 250.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…3480backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 80c | 249.18$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 70c | 231.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…6a44backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 20c | 225$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…2fa6backed Yes | 24c | 224.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…15fdbacked Yes | 26c | 224.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d4eabacked Yes | 14c | 221.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 22c | 216.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 31c | 210.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…e50fbacked Yes | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 74c | 208$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ed…94cfbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…08b0backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa5…7e01backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…6ad9backed Yes | 25c | 197.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.