TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the election be called on Nov 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c29…d822backed Yes27c12,186$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,302.478632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes7c10,095$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d3…e9fabacked Yes20c6,449$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf109…a863backed Yes26c6,121$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca5…76bfbacked No80c5,270$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5431…47e1backed No69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5501241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d5…682bbacked Yes17c4,930$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…0d9cbacked Yes20c3,990$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes18c3,523$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.217834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes17c3,257$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.483321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes18c3,099$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.0912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked Yes21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes26c2,418$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.083218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a80…2ce6backed No74c2,361$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa928…7773backed Yes24c2,068$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No77c1,933$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.2435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1750…dce6backed Yes7c1,700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes19c1,564$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0b7…5d06backed Yes24c1,495$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f91…d1fabacked Yes20c1,481$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefe1…f3cfbacked Yes25c1,270$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b0…6815backed Yes20c1,234$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f81…0caabacked No80c1,184$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.781450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes9c1,183$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.062657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db0…8415backed Yes18c1,129$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ec…d690backed Yes19c1,105$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes27c1,090$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.597458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c1,077$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed No79c1,070$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.47683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed Yes19c1,049$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.792653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f2…94b7backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc19c…f697backed Yes24c999.54$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+203.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No75c900$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-62.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ea…22ecbacked Yes23c879.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fab…530ebacked Yes23c872.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes22c800$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x571a…da76backed Yes69c798.56$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c3…7686backed Yes33c756.72$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e51…a6cfbacked No73c748.62$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ac…028ebacked Yes17c719.04$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…9f23backed Yes22c692.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes19c674.07$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.911330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9bb…4774backed Yes23c662.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba25…aa2cbacked Yes20c604.54$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+69.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes20c600$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1179129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes17c599.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes38c577.1$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.961618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes10c530.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.281747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3530…3249backed Yes19c518.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…0465backed Yes17c505.68$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbb…eda3backed Yes20c502.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b68…cd17backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5553…6d2ebacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x937e…4023backed Yes29c481.57$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed Yes25c465.28$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.32137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-86.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes11c456.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd68b…7be9backed Yes21c450.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d86…162cbacked Yes69c436.06$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes19c421.07$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.230319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes20c414.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.022737%10 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No78c399.98$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes22c399.95$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9912619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd043…d22abacked No78c383$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e5…e83cbacked Yes25c383$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x029f…1c69backed Yes30c373.85$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cab…8b27backed Yes34c371.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1596…30e3backed Yes22c370.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0995…ee92backed Yes30c368.58$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…38ebbacked Yes19c358.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9618…12d1backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938d…7a60backed Yes11c350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…ec7ebacked Yes27c339.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes29c338$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.02633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1170…080fbacked No79c316.28$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+168.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0d…12f8backed Yes18c310$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10810137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x792f…3ea3backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa145…49e6backed Yes17c299.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+64.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes24c275.85$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8717225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed Yes34c262.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.632075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No73c255.28$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes19c250.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.322412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacad…3480backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No80c249.18$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.845158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No70c231.86$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.845850%29 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d3…6a44backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef94…502ebacked Yes20c225$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…2fa6backed Yes24c224.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b9…15fdbacked Yes26c224.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fc…d4eabacked Yes14c221.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes22c216.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.958757.5%50 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes31c210.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae2…e50fbacked Yes23c210$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+126.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No74c208$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.322846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75ed…94cfbacked No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a11…08b0backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa5…7e01backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x007c…6ad9backed Yes25c197.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.