TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes26c7,278$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.148921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes76c5,756$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,390.4641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No60c5,412$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.4769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No29c3,451$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.34422.7%10 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No17c3,100$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.585437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes59c2,106$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.5921935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes73c2,060$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.3311428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No20c1,854$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.844650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes67c1,800$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c1,593$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No78c1,530$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.232147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+101.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No11c1,517$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.6210950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No44c1,433$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.667051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42c…8d31backed Yes75c1,350$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.951163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes79c1,332$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.151643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes60c1,252$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.7310127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No78c1,138$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.123938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf23a…d3f8backed No31c1,135$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.391181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No35c1,116$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.9139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No39c1,070$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.521915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No24c895.44$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.2537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe15c…152cbacked No37c882$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.941233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes78c855.87$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.0517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed Yes75c759.98$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.453161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes77c633.41$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.15135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No57c587.45$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.6723543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked Yes14c520.1$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed No48c513.79$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.53330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No76c493.91$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No24c440.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.747133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked No48c427.19$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.762147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No24c419.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.989426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa8c…5baebacked No34c352.94$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes76c350$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.53959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes75c339.51$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4116725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes48c334.48$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8312839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c334.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes14c332.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.395050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42ab…2bd1backed No33c330$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes8c325$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…e546backed Yes9c306.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.94100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes25c300$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7615227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe572…d822backed Yes17c288.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd94…b271backed Yes70c285.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed Yes53c280$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked Yes18c277.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes78c276.09$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes77c260.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-80.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes6c259$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be3…afa3backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes28c207.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.491414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1605164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.4wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+29.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes71c200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3832626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1163852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c184.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes71c176.28$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes11c174.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.153026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes26c168.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0933618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes10c167.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.351533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes13c167$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.663253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…029abacked No63c166.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd4…e335backed Yes35c161.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.361127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed No49c159.1$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.312075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed No21c157.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.815147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes75c134.67$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012552%13 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes9c132.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.613813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes27c129.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.694528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x615f…e162backed No23c128.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.671546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3416…488ebacked Yes8c122.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes79c120.2$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.969160.4%55 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e8…874fbacked Yes78c120.19$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6940%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b04…b528backed No71c115.21$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No47c114.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.29533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes38c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.43125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes12c106$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes19c105.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No21c101.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9711940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes71c101$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7114624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf101…b28abacked Yes10c100.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed No37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.257331.5%23 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721735.3%6 W · 11 L-6.3wins-0.37per pick73cpaid-53%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed No26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7088…d1e3backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e17…9944backed No27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.12147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3553…6e3cbacked Yes10c99.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes20c99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes70c97.89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.526040%24 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes76c97.71$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.453435.3%12 W · 22 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes18c88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Yes68c85.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf49d…b6bebacked No32c84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No21c82.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.177830.8%24 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No80c81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf52…41d9backed Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed No44c80.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.275825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No59c78.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8622641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.