Us Politics · resolved market
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d3b617b77009da342b854c1a94b7731d8ee523857962d0ca22bd017fc6b5e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked No | 27c | 3,508$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.56 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked Yes | 74c | 1,971$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 5c | 692.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 458.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…1b74backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed No | 4c | 365.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 293.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 15c | 174.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 158.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 10c | 119.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…9d55backed No | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…05aabacked Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?this page
- Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?No won
- Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.