Us Politics · resolved market
Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d1e12f0e5cd575ce17bf5bfed3d4adecaccef50fa1a20bc45b6432be0d30d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 73c | 1,876$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked No | 47c | 898.05$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 884$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 12c | 813.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c0…65a1backed Yes | 68c | 365.2$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 143.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 9c | 127.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 87.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 18c | 79.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 72c | 75.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed No | 16c | 71.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 65.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b6…f391backed No | 29c | 63.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4768…ffe8backed Yes | 56c | 35.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…b6a6backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b5b2backed Yes | 72c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?this page
- Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?No won
- Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.