TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,512 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes5c20,377$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.4826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes30c20,001$5,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,982.91128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-85.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes8c11,706$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.162050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c8,593$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.9951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed No73c6,821$5,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.172755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…15f1backed Yes8c6,298$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes0c5,230$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.463312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No70c5,001$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.712142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb43…b10abacked Yes13c4,962$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes17c4,881$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.793148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2803…0dd7backed Yes16c4,505$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.81428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf01…492abacked Yes4c4,200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Yes0c4,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5322…237abacked Yes28c3,950$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes14c3,908$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.558220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes9c3,552$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.125315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked No70c2,622$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.5510052%52 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes31c2,546$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.433458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac9…d84ebacked No70c2,500$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.041050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No71c2,240$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked No71c2,067$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.491729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked No68c2,006$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.311030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes22c2,000$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.75644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a6…6b75backed Yes16c1,961$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c1,600$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42228750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed Yes12c1,554$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.821330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081d…8c34backed No72c1,486$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.262360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No76c1,350$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32410150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6711…7d95backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72dc…37a7backed Yes15c1,081$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes27c1,059$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.611526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes16c1,055$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.860%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes1c1,023$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.27229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bef…5d3dbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1232…ed65backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes30c999.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9682…738bbacked Yes29c850$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed No74c802.89$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.891442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2873…4ad3backed Yes8c766.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes26c754.13$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.078951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes27c717.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4e…4984backed Yes9c709.44$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed No77c704.28$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.771735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes12c700$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x113d…a5e6backed No78c604.72$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No70c572.23$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2416246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7cf9…1289backed Yes30c495.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ab…f3a1backed No71c492.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.96475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+96.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb83…033bbacked Yes17c463.14$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes14c438.74$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.119815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No70c413.13$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.983435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No67c410.48$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5624234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a4…cb86backed No75c401.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+87%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No73c350$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No76c346.54$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.17966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfaf…fac7backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd79d…5489backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes26c332.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.554318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9735…7e9ebacked No71c288.65$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.714100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c266.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2290…3a79backed Yes11c247.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8179…777dbacked Yes7c240.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes26c235.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.955422.2%12 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6056…7227backed Yes24c220$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a8…5d12backed Yes30c201.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b8f…8341backed Yes15c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+127.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…86a3backed Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaec…b432backed Yes15c177.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec1…e25fbacked Yes15c170$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Yes60c166.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df7…3155backed Yes31c160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf1…4c73backed No77c155.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf087…40f5backed No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e23…b73dbacked No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed No70c148.83$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.541040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes23c135.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.088037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…1761backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed No76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes17c119.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb7…2b81backed Yes16c119.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5574…6424backed Yes30c114$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes30c103.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.094032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2afd…3e47backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3120823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1a…efe7backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264228.6%12 W · 30 L-7.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-48.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed Yes29c95.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes17c95.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.942825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a2…8e2bbacked Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a51…9818backed Yes13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e66…8cf9backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.