Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d82ada028f257111b606d76ca2930b639f60e10f05cb23193da57c08e1cf1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 20,377$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.48 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 30c | 20,001$5,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,982.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 8c | 11,706$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 8,593$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.99 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed No | 73c | 6,821$5,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.17 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 8c | 6,298$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 70c | 5,001$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.71 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Yes | 13c | 4,962$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 17c | 4,881$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed Yes | 16c | 4,505$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked Yes | 4c | 4,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked Yes | 28c | 3,950$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 3,908$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.55 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 9c | 3,552$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 70c | 2,622$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.55 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 31c | 2,546$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.43 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…d84ebacked No | 70c | 2,500$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 71c | 2,240$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 71c | 2,067$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 68c | 2,006$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.7 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 16c | 1,961$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 1,600$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 12c | 1,554$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 72c | 1,486$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 76c | 1,350$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dc…37a7backed Yes | 15c | 1,081$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,059$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes | 16c | 1,055$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,023$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…5d3dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…ed65backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked Yes | 29c | 850$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 74c | 802.89$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…4ad3backed Yes | 8c | 766.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 26c | 754.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Yes | 27c | 717.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…4984backed Yes | 9c | 709.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed No | 77c | 704.28$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes | 12c | 700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed No | 78c | 604.72$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 70c | 572.23$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 30c | 495.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f3a1backed No | 71c | 492.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb83…033bbacked Yes | 17c | 463.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 14c | 438.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 70c | 413.13$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 67c | 410.48$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…cb86backed No | 75c | 401.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 73c | 350$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 76c | 346.54$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…fac7backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 26c | 332.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…7e9ebacked No | 71c | 288.65$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 266.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2290…3a79backed Yes | 11c | 247.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…777dbacked Yes | 7c | 240.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 26c | 235.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 24c | 220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…5d12backed Yes | 30c | 201.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…8341backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…86a3backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…b432backed Yes | 15c | 177.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec1…e25fbacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 60c | 166.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…3155backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…4c73backed No | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e23…b73dbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 70c | 148.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 23c | 135.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…1761backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 17c | 119.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…2b81backed Yes | 16c | 119.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 30c | 114$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 30c | 103.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…3e47backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 29c | 95.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 17c | 95.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…8e2bbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…9818backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…8cf9backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.