Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cd6620ae4e87b4e97bb6c92257042d078e444a9c5545387e5cb36788cf31c60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Up | 0c | 4,851$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Up | 7c | 4,439$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.62 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…9426backed Up | 21c | 980$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Down | 58c | 820.97$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.01 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…5f96backed Down | 78c | 810$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…09e0backed Up | 22c | 705$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5783…7fdebacked Down | 79c | 660$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Down | 53c | 636.96$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.9 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Down | 76c | 529.23$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Down | 69c | 402.54$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x348d…b38fbacked Down | 79c | 340$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Up | 46c | 326.7$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Down | 59c | 316.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…6f8ebacked Up | 22c | 295$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…58acbacked Down | 66c | 280.07$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b9…0218backed Up | 37c | 267.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Down | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 42c | 236.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…6df3backed Down | 65c | 218.19$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Up | 5c | 201.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Up | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…1ca1backed Down | 78c | 190$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Up | 35c | 180.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Up | 21c | 178.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed Down | 68c | 177.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a6…4474backed Up | 63c | 115$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Up | 26c | 114.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…8fe8backed Up | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Down | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…e877backed Down | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Up | 53c | 99.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed Up | 46c | 96.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Down | 58c | 95.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…fe0bbacked Down | 55c | 90.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Up | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Up | 46c | 73.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Down | 52c | 73.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…b132backed Up | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Up | 21c | 70.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a35…a08fbacked Down | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Up | 36c | 68.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…b485backed Up | 59c | 68.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Up | 40c | 65.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…6b01backed Up | 58c | 60.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…13fabacked Up | 53c | 53.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Down | 73c | 52.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up | 40c | 51.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…fd20backed Down | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Down | 75c | 49.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…971bbacked Down | 45c | 44.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Down | 78c | 43.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Up | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd869…5756backed Up | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…5158backed Down | 41c | 35.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…a26cbacked Down | 43c | 35.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…0e6fbacked Up | 43c | 34.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked Up | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…0b2abacked Up | 64c | 31.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…86e1backed Down | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…ee64backed Up | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…b168backed Down | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…868cbacked Down | 67c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Down | 46c | 27.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…e912backed Down | 79c | 26.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…3f3fbacked Down | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Down | 61c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…fae7backed Up | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…5453backed Down | 67c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed Up | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf013…755fbacked Up | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…f230backed Up | 60c | 19.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Down | 78c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…40bebacked Up | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…2aa8backed Down | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…231fbacked Down | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.