Us Politics · resolved market
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e3ecd84be0b06988b78489a612254220d0fde31cf26ef04477ac6d90b101ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $371,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $355,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d6…54b0backed Yes | 1c | 37,113$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 20c | 25,968$5,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067.79 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed No | 79c | 12,981$10,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 18c | 9,209$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 80c | 9,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,203$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…2325backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 2c | 4,310$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 13c | 4,037$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +468.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 3,877$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.23 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed Yes | 19c | 3,521$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 20c | 3,450$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 79c | 3,333$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.92 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 4c | 3,310$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 19c | 3,102$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 2,913$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 18c | 2,895$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.67 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 7c | 2,894$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed Yes | 7c | 2,585$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 17c | 2,558$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.19 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…4e6ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,437$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 79c | 2,300$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.99 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 3c | 2,141$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 79c | 2,137$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.73 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 7c | 2,093$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 2,068$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.68 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 4c | 2,028$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 9c | 2,001$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.56 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf6…88d3backed Yes | 24c | 1,934$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,727$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 1,599$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,499$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.33 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…cbbfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,496$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,460$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…8bcfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,332$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 8c | 1,320$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,231$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 74c | 1,231$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.89 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,192$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.7 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,183$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.95 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,111$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 79c | 1,111$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…1028backed Yes | 7c | 1,069$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 20c | 973.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.09 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 967.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.37 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 14c | 841.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…2210backed Yes | 4c | 820.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…28a6backed No | 80c | 807.78$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 14c | 771.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 76c | 750$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.03 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 20c | 742.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…c8b8backed Yes | 3c | 733.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 22c | 727.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 79c | 705.66$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…063fbacked Yes | 3c | 687.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 686.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 17c | 679.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…a463backed Yes | 3c | 679.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 19c | 657.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked No | 77c | 657.31$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 2c | 649.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…a101backed Yes | 8c | 634.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 15c | 600$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…9addbacked Yes | 13c | 599.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 16c | 536.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4525…0f9dbacked Yes | 18c | 524.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 25c | 509.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed Yes | 17c | 503.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d6d6backed Yes | 10c | 502.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…e8bdbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 18c | 500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 78c | 486.68$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e6…af1ebacked Yes | 24c | 477.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…0fe8backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…2392backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 76c | 435.09$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 429.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 80c | 402$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 11c | 390.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed Yes | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…32e3backed Yes | 13c | 381.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.