Ukraine · resolved market
Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3915558aceb0616f616f04be76a5fc8fb1e02677bdcf550dc13bed33281fc9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 59c | 1,258$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 64c | 1,235$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 61c | 1,230$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.06 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 36c | 1,097$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…ca1bbacked Yes | 71c | 805.5$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…b8b6backed Yes | 58c | 793.9$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 60c | 735.9$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 41c | 634$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…3fe8backed Yes | 60c | 622.42$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 583.21$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.07 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 47c | 538.53$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 41c | 533$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked No | 43c | 519.43$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 470.88$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.11 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 44c | 465.94$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 64c | 428$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 36c | 428$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 65c | 385$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 35c | 385$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 46c | 374.87$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 40c | 367$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes | 60c | 367$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked No | 53c | 301.26$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…17c9backed No | 39c | 257.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 62c | 253.38$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 54c | 250.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…eb3bbacked No | 41c | 243.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…5826backed Yes | 62c | 219.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…03f3backed No | 47c | 211.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…fa22backed Yes | 55c | 197.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 39c | 194.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 184.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked Yes | 58c | 179.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed Yes | 66c | 175.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 137.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…72fabacked Yes | 59c | 136.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 45c | 131.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes | 53c | 102.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 41c | 91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…7249backed Yes | 63c | 72.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…1046backed Yes | 71c | 68.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 25c | 62.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…2856backed No | 48c | 62.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 40c | 61.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 56.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…dcddbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 42c | 45.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…40c5backed Yes | 50c | 45.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314f…e267backed Yes | 62c | 39.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…dc4bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 51c | 36.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 40c | 36.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…641cbacked No | 75c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 57c | 33.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked Yes | 46c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…9682backed Yes | 57c | 31.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdc…dc4cbacked Yes | 63c | 30.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…f9cebacked No | 43c | 25.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…a931backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd845…8181backed Yes | 61c | 24.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…8e24backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…04b1backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…8775backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed No | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026?this page
- Will Khayat win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Laud win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Leléka win Vidbir 2026?Yes won
- Will Monokate win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Mr. Vel win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will ShchukaRyba win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will The Elliens win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Valeriya Force win Vidbir 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.