Ukraine · resolved market
Will Leléka win Vidbir 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e4cdb788d48db91ba5fffaa72bec67ad8c1f44a72882fe49871b0840ec9a64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 28c | 1,413$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 61c | 1,311$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 72c | 1,063$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…0da3backed Yes | 43c | 940.84$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 24c | 831$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 24c | 815$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 60c | 605.6$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 76c | 605$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…5a42backed Yes | 42c | 596.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 29c | 568$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 71c | 568$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 24c | 562$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 76c | 446$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 442$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.14 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 24c | 434$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 76c | 434$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…75c5backed Yes | 31c | 416.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 24c | 384$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 76c | 384$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +243.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 32c | 370$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 76c | 309$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 297.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 76c | 297$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 76c | 286$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 71c | 281.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 31c | 273.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.77 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 76c | 265$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 250.1$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…04b1backed No | 37c | 233.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 72c | 208$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 133.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 72c | 121.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…8083backed Yes | 36c | 111.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…5826backed Yes | 33c | 91.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked No | 76c | 87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…0871backed Yes | 58c | 79.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…44bebacked Yes | 41c | 73.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 20c | 71.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 61.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd845…8181backed Yes | 68c | 58.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 26c | 57.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 50.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…2856backed Yes | 43c | 46.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…72fabacked No | 69c | 43.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…a18ebacked Yes | 40c | 40.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…6dd3backed Yes | 77c | 28.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 48c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed Yes | 69c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…8775backed Yes | 60c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leléka win Vidbir 2026?this page
- Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Khayat win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Laud win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Monokate win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Mr. Vel win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will ShchukaRyba win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will The Elliens win Vidbir 2026?No won
- Will Valeriya Force win Vidbir 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.