AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03abb3f9faf4805c24d345e80b919b9e066e087457c74f1148e17c2ead57cd8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c02…2b85backed No | 44c | 4,000$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 40c | 4,000$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.95 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 44c | 3,964$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…973abacked No | 20c | 2,790$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 79c | 2,548$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.57 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 12c | 2,133$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed No | 18c | 2,116$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 11c | 2,098$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 79c | 1,737$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.34 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 15c | 1,530$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f78…f3a0backed No | 30c | 1,188$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 68c | 989$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.98 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 12c | 950$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 61c | 868.99$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.09 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…7a47backed No | 19c | 864.16$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 64c | 764.44$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 13c | 736.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 12c | 726.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 10c | 645.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 13c | 538.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 12c | 532.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 15c | 483.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked No | 12c | 403.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 385.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 14c | 349.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…289dbacked No | 11c | 345$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 10c | 327.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 19c | 324.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked No | 20c | 324.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…65a1backed No | 16c | 316.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 17c | 314.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 9c | 231$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked No | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…b816backed No | 18c | 203.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…94febacked No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…0a26backed No | 20c | 195.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed No | 15c | 171.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…aa87backed No | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…c2b5backed No | 19c | 160.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…7346backed No | 13c | 154.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0ec0backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…6602backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…de64backed No | 11c | 146.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…7524backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…3246backed No | 16c | 128.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…d079backed No | 16c | 126.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…f458backed No | 19c | 126$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…c6b6backed No | 16c | 125.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 72c | 118.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…7eaabacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 22c | 111.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…8b64backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3b21backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…02afbacked No | 13c | 103.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…272bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…b1bbbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…11d9backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…cf68backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed No | 18c | 99.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…13c0backed No | 20c | 97.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc692…2154backed No | 17c | 94.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5988…d81dbacked No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d0c6backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ad…2509backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed No | 18c | 87.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…2320backed No | 18c | 68.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…47abbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…8e97backed No | 18c | 56.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed No | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 75c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…732cbacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?this page
- Will anyone say "Apple" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Battery" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Camera" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "China" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "India" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "M5" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Next Generation" during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Steve Jobs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Tariffs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.