TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will anyone say "China" during Apple launch event on September 9?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$106291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c76…f344backed Yes2c530.46$12 inLost-$12.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No74c303.22$225 inWon+$77.9311850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost-$4512636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No75c261.28$196 inWon+$65.323839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes19c256.65$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x423c…25d5backed Yes24c204.23$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes9c199.99$18 inLost-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd770…2fd3backed Yes23c190$44 inLost-$43.830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes14c120$17 inLost-$16.81618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No76c110$84 inWon+$26.45653.6%30 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes27c100.1$27 inLost-$26.671323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb51…c971backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$14520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d65…c8cebacked No78c89.77$70 inWon+$19.58560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a1b…a074backed Yes25c81.2$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca9…e423backed Yes25c80$20 inLost-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-79.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa451…f8ebbacked Yes25c79.68$20 inLost-$19.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes19c63.42$12 inLost-$12.05238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8efb…f34fbacked Yes17c60$10 inLost-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No56c49$27 inWon+$21.568257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf133…9964backed Yes44c44$19 inLost-$19.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48c6…d483backed No77c40$31 inWon+$9.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930c…f632backed Yes56c35.51$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4092…1920backed No76c30$23 inWon+$7.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3152…6e69backed No80c15$12 inWon+$31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.