AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86577a2927be5eb9e958cc60d5a60541d296642bd17aa39b3bf1d2c36e93207b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 32c | 398.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 38c | 341.58$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…63bebacked Yes | 65c | 328.73$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 35c | 302.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 66c | 275.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.61 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 33c | 218.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…c9f4backed No | 35c | 199.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +160%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes | 59c | 170.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…f17cbacked Yes | 67c | 162.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed Yes | 64c | 155.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…285abacked Yes | 67c | 149.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…7a47backed Yes | 49c | 138.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 69c | 132.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed No | 38c | 132.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No | 51c | 127.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…cf68backed Yes | 64c | 113.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…b33dbacked No | 40c | 107.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes | 64c | 104.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 46c | 87.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 30c | 85.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 49c | 80.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.58per pick | 26cpaid | +987.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…6d6cbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…ae25backed Yes | 59c | 67.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…eb68backed No | 39c | 64.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 69c | 57.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d1…faa0backed Yes | 66c | 51.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…272bbacked Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…18ffbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 35c | 48.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13ee…701fbacked No | 54c | 46.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 43.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 44c | 43.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…f34fbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 36c | 36.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe576…eeffbacked Yes | 64c | 31.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…d079backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…398cbacked Yes | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…3c55backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45fa…9918backed Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…c2b5backed Yes | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…2befbacked Yes | 68c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?this page
- Will anyone say "Apple" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Battery" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Camera" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "China" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "India" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "M5" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Next Generation" during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Steve Jobs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Tariffs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.