AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "India" during Apple launch event on September 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf00b17af64334b582b263980c4842e2a17146b866c3b00d0dd26c2e6910c4a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 497.99$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffed…28ebbacked Yes | 24c | 307.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 9c | 295$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 75c | 202.35$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…e021backed Yes | 35c | 171.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…d1cabacked Yes | 13c | 152.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 141.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +160%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…aa87backed Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 101.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…ca72backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…f34fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…a074backed Yes | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 62c | 57.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…2fd3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "India" during Apple launch event on September 9?this page
- Will anyone say "Apple" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Battery" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Camera" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "China" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "M5" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Next Generation" during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Steve Jobs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Tariffs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.