AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "M5" during Apple launch event on September 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8238565c60f1782ef38b9a7a02f42277337fa1a3e7a46df14e011aa1a1b35a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,056$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 79c | 712.31$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 80c | 700.25$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 79c | 636.89$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 16c | 431.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 13c | 256.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 20c | 201.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…b33dbacked Yes | 24c | 186.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…6602backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6389…41f6backed Yes | 19c | 128.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…614abacked Yes | 69c | 121.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…fcdbbacked Yes | 15c | 110.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 22c | 90.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed No | 72c | 89.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 12c | 89.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e671backed Yes | 20c | 83.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 25c | 79.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…0dc0backed Yes | 18c | 78.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…6d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 72.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.34per pick | 55cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…e39fbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 75c | 50.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…ca72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "M5" during Apple launch event on September 9?this page
- Will anyone say "Apple" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Battery" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Camera" 5+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "China" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "India" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Next Generation" during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Revolutionary" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Steve Jobs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Tariffs" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Yes won
- Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.