TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Yes75c1,711$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed No25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked No25c453.16$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.871030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ee…cf68backed Yes77c342.09$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.851127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes78c300$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.831225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfef7…c9f4backed No25c299.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.994100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+160%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No36c299.34$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.996659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7268…614abacked No47c294.09$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.821241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7301…e58cbacked No49c291.25$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ee…8d47backed No47c263.04$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No21c249.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+93%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b58…8e28backed Yes76c239.5$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.35366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No21c230.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No19c226.12$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+108.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No21c214.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17011850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2032…23f7backed No17c193.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.182321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae2…2c7bbacked No26c184.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+282.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e7…e194backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed No42c162.86$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3e…e671backed No30c160$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes16c155.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2619337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c59…d079backed No26c151.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes69c149.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6038…413ebacked Yes62c149.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes62c149.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No33c147.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.422035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34f…212ebacked No25c134.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+161.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac43…5c4cbacked Yes75c133.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Yes78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ee…0a23backed No28c126.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd316…bca3backed Yes79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…14f3backed No37c120.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2c6…de64backed No25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No78c115.38$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.384540%18 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf117…31b6backed No32c109.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes21c103.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6910426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacd1…972abacked Yes75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+82.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904843.8%21 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7345738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0d3…634fbacked No27c99.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+52.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4092…1920backed Yes70c99.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed No21c92.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+140%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes78c91.65$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c88.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.961,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cea…b5ffbacked No25c85.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+166.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb765…f696backed No45c81.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5b…650fbacked Yes68c77.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13ee…701fbacked No35c72.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+136.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae53…c2b5backed Yes73c68.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4127…abaebacked Yes78c64.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e27…7ae6backed Yes78c63.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0920…19a4backed No26c62.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+286.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b43…b346backed No25c60.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes69c58.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cf…0569backed No43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…14dcbacked No26c57.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes74c54.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7413654.4%74 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4680…b33dbacked No25c51.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+116.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes67c51.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.292050%10 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfb7…c940backed No31c50.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc440…6149backed No25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+67.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3730%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49c8…c714backed Yes79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c83…8a22backed Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-65.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No22c45.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes51c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.442010%2 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-78.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xffed…28ebbacked Yes65c41.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9835…4862backed No49c40.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930c…f632backed Yes65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb557…ef84backed No26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes76c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes37c39.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-89.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3561…398cbacked Yes78c38.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d65…c8cebacked Yes56c34.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0684…d0c6backed No32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ad…2509backed No32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-66.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0582…b1e9backed Yes66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765b…1a00backed Yes77c30.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45b…c3acbacked Yes66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5651…5e65backed Yes73c29.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…fe26backed No43c27.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.795100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes76c26.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-44.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe576…eeffbacked Yes78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed Yes80c25.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebca…44a0backed Yes60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf133…9964backed Yes74c24.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x296f…1f8cbacked Yes76c21.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc37…1c7bbacked Yes61c20.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked Yes60c18.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…103cbacked Yes79c17.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x799f…c6b6backed Yes80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.