TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open Final: Sinner vs. Alcaraz?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked No29c11,030$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.493336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes71c10,000$7,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.171450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed No28c8,620$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.0316140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes67c5,858$3,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.741,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No36c5,258$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.228141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed No38c5,030$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.8722629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabca…cfd1backed Yes56c4,079$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,793$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.352,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes56c3,543$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.7157249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes69c3,307$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.831735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…dacfbacked No46c2,623$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.971250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94e…f946backed Yes75c2,613$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes74c2,562$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.0311852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked No30c2,436$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.641250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No41c2,351$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.246136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked No37c2,227$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.9913934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Yes63c2,225$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.1413245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No27c2,100$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57622623.9%54 W · 172 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No22c2,064$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.3424634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes71c2,046$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.931861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Yes63c1,750$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…1208backed No38c1,746$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.112416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78b3…843abacked No35c1,662$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No27c1,600$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4323823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa639…1b76backed No41c1,488$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No31c1,460$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4581225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed Yes71c1,457$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.78683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed Yes74c1,424$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.131741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes70c1,372$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.077057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed No6c1,292$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No5c1,243$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2518740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2263…4e26backed Yes71c1,181$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes74c1,176$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.682462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Yes69c1,167$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.2713762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024844.8%111 W · 137 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes67c970$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.42437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3606…9bd2backed No32c952.49$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.941747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed No15c934.08$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed Yes69c914.6$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.53580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes69c899.85$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes67c895.91$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6531850.3%160 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes70c860$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2582450%12 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked No33c856.68$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Yes72c792.16$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.13745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733f…3e9bbacked Yes75c700$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x647e…dd9bbacked Yes72c696.73$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.731764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No30c666.33$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.12653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…f9cbbacked Yes68c620.66$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Yes67c575.99$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.089453.2%50 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes69c544$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.27744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No6c518.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8510138.6%39 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Yes69c510.68$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3110654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes74c472.15$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1513050.8%66 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes80c440.4$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.122650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes75c389.14$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Yes75c369.97$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4917538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed No34c353.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8952750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Yes63c349.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.52454.2%13 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes66c349.73$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2933550.7%170 W · 165 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed No27c339.63$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.72653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c321.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1138147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef7…c9f4backed No36c319.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes64c319.07$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.291050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa924…9c72backed No13c315.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f82cbacked No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes71c281.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.113655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No33c272.73$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf06f…6dfabacked Yes74c270$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba72…143bbacked Yes68c253.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No30c251.12$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes74c250$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.22157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Yes69c249.82$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.767955.7%44 W · 35 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes71c244.93$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.31,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed No27c244.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.951850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes70c243.98$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.192227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d4…da34backed Yes61c219.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes69c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3938356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c202.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.511,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a40…2eaebacked Yes72c200$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+79.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No37c194.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No24c194.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb1…b027backed No37c189.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaef3…e9b9backed Yes63c187.28$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes61c179.74$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.471526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc14d…263cbacked Yes67c162.19$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.52650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb8…4e12backed Yes64c156.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4888749.8%442 W · 445 L-22.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5721758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5804…dc41backed Yes68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes76c149.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.513546.7%63 W · 72 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed Yes69c144.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe95d…b2a1backed Yes71c140.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.031070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes71c137.13$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2adc…8f9abacked Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.586464.1%41 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No31c126$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.83955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.