TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,447 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9904…5ac8backed Yes55c455.92$250 inWon+$205.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed No50c250$125 inLost-$125922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No42c159.45$67 inLost-$67.494134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No57c108.43$62 inLost-$62.162846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No12c84$10 inLost-$10.38248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes56c79.67$44 inWon+$35.3413100%13 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No40c70.34$28 inLost-$28.142552%13 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No43c57.14$24 inLost-$24.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a40…0295backed Yes54c54.47$29 inWon+$25.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon+$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No41c47.12$19 inLost-$19.324348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No64c43.71$28 inLost-$27.972268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+41.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No56c43.39$24 inLost-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No72c39.19$28 inLost-$28.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed No57c35.36$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.49per pick74cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ac4…e9d5backed Yes58c34.55$20 inWon+$14.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes59c34.11$20 inWon+$14.111266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d4…88ecbacked Yes59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad1…1bfabacked Yes52c31.83$17 inWon+$15.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c89…0ebabacked No72c27.78$20 inLost-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a20…cd91backed No61c21.92$13 inLost-$13.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c5…2ddcbacked No65c20$13 inLost-$13366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae67…a694backed Yes58c20$12 inWon+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed No51c20$10 inLost-$10.21540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No66c15.89$10 inLost-$10.496771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.