TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$761,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$797,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $761,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 495 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes76c51,022$38,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,331.077458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No12c36,054$4,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,401.033221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No13c24,481$3,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.079533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No20c24,407$4,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,816.447931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No33c22,794$7,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,530.6399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No11c22,577$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.4619236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No32c21,282$6,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,905.282123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No15c19,046$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.2517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No18c18,759$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.892138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No12c15,583$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.6133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No33c12,600$4,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,141.683852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No42c10,229$4,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,297.0313943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed No48c9,905$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,729.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed No15c8,691$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No67c8,220$5,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,546.1935519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b6…fd8dbacked No16c5,881$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.73560%3 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick17cpaid+237.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No6c5,750$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.082825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked No46c5,600$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.981030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No33c4,314$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.875437%20 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed No15c4,082$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed No40c3,798$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.86742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes77c3,704$2,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.02988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed Yes56c3,657$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.861952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes76c3,500$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+87.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes77c3,386$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.91546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes61c3,030$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.8610055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed No2c2,945$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-37.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked No20c2,923$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.931861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes53c2,886$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.186549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed Yes66c2,777$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.39825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf148…45efbacked No8c2,756$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed No10c2,678$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.85110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked No76c2,669$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0305733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed No19c2,564$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No75c2,475$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.46230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe51…c0d3backed No11c2,429$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes54c2,207$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.394535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yes47c2,069$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34fb…71b7backed Yes26c1,932$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee29…8c8bbacked Yes53c1,905$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.74785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes78c1,813$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.34955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes19c1,780$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4422744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,771$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.941,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cff…b104backed No29c1,670$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes61c1,666$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.743231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed No3c1,605$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc5…247cbacked Yes63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6256…7181backed No41c1,580$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c799backed No9c1,510$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No13c1,500$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3518725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No42c1,475$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed No31c1,475$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd16c…60e9backed Yes69c1,355$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No27c1,346$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.561520%3 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a45…dd1dbacked Yes73c1,221$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.23560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes75c1,213$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.063046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No65c1,200$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No50c1,200$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5978547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef67…2a33backed No10c1,146$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.651910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8960%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes55c1,100$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4983432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No13c1,076$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8811120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes64c1,063$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.771650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1,019.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77ad…ba8abacked No14c1,052$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc06f…ac41backed Yes78c1,046$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No29c1,022$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No18c1,013$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.152814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb1…b027backed No31c1,012$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No11c1,005$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes19c1,004$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81412643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes18c1,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8207254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No13c991.17$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.854320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No15c978.59$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…aa73backed No2c974.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…6c5bbacked Yes27c960.41$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes60c956.86$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.3256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No73c948.38$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.31837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick68cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes80c948.06$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…81d5backed Yes22c927.06$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No12c876.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes59c872.69$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.393043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+91.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes77c849.49$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.992437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes23c816.65$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick22cpaid+171.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No31c808.46$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes61c803.25$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.751861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Yes74c800.58$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.09862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed No3c800.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.443016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddad…c3dabacked Yes65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f3…05a3backed No26c795.19$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed No39c791$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.681540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7964…f585backed No46c769.57$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa533…ea94backed No22c767.82$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes50c752.46$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.23714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes75c750$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f31…c075backed No17c745.2$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed No2c734.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No20c733.59$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4114935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No77c728.61$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.4921935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes56c674.96$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.212030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.