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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,843,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,835,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,843,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe0c0…2d97backed Yes2c249,174$5,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,843.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ef…5232backed Yes20c134,755$26,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,71230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc6…dfe9backed Yes3c88,411$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,856911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c85,376$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.5832029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6974…1287backed Yes0c65,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe4…256abacked Yes1c60,940$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.94520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes4c53,697$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.16230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes1c52,969$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa21f…d76abacked Yes5c44,336$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes4c43,629$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.992119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No76c35,928$27,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,727.354955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fd2…3efbbacked Yes2c34,252$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.581020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…597ebacked Yes1c32,801$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd75…f49bbacked Yes5c28,859$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes22c27,488$6,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,167.741266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+57.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes5c25,067$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes4c24,227$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9e…a9e7backed Yes0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3b…dd2abacked Yes0c24,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes13c22,572$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.891947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8995…8899backed Yes1c22,379$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7451…8e8abacked Yes0c22,280$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes4c21,151$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…e8acbacked Yes2c21,032$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dd…f73fbacked Yes4c20,035$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked Yes1c18,851$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c18,774$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.81931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes6c17,790$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.17128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-85.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x176e…154abacked Yes1c16,587$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f31…9e9dbacked Yes1c15,856$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e02…11dbbacked Yes1c15,474$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed Yes10c15,130$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe78…d2d1backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…dbaabacked Yes0c14,023$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes3c13,112$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No79c12,873$10,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.834951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes3c12,768$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.97100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccb…2b4abacked Yes0c12,095$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…4a12backed Yes1c11,104$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d73…9aadbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a5…ec07backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Yes0c9,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes1c9,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.32520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked Yes20c8,882$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+303%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes1c8,389$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.17933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+139%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6afc…5d32backed Yes8c8,329$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa5…6bc9backed Yes0c8,300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b3…2096backed Yes4c8,203$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2321…268abacked Yes1c7,874$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7b…fd67backed Yes0c7,613$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes6c7,081$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.776740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes6c7,050$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.356038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked Yes7c6,839$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.821827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbb…4a56backed Yes10c6,713$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0542…b0cfbacked Yes2c6,629$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes9c6,472$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.955010%5 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked Yes3c6,470$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.08333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes9c6,314$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.012425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes5c6,287$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.64728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c6,154$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No48c6,003$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.341540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes12c6,000$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.851723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes5c5,800$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.873831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes2c5,730$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9379…2e25backed Yes3c5,633$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes11c5,618$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.37633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c5,610$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.02610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1494…691ebacked Yes0c5,291$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes0c5,151$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5def…1283backed Yes1c5,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes11c5,000$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1e…b029backed Yes10c4,933$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…9d7ebacked Yes2c4,624$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfb…8c42backed Yes14c4,604$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed Yes6c4,511$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34e…239fbacked Yes9c4,398$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f6…1698backed Yes7c4,035$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c4d…0cadbacked Yes5c4,026$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes7c4,006$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.886546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed Yes1c4,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff8…2468backed Yes1c3,999$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes7c3,908$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.59110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8737…8a6bbacked Yes1c3,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43db…9871backed Yes13c3,895$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9077…8738backed Yes3c3,830$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…d607backed Yes4c3,819$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.38450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+268.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes21c3,819$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9881…446fbacked Yes6c3,730$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…0e66backed Yes2c3,700$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes2c3,699$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes9c3,601$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes9c3,539$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a22…138ebacked Yes9c3,445$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8c…d8fabacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e0…719cbacked Yes9c3,287$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e87…b0f9backed Yes1c3,200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4fa…7b90backed Yes2c3,057$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No79c3,055$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.1710127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.