Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a013e18bfe627f81f89ce94d40f13cec494e82bf956163cd2097cb236231b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 27c | 1,534$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.8 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…07c3backed No | 43c | 1,500$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 64c | 1,393$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.53 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 44c | 660$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 76c | 521.73$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.78 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…e628backed Yes | 43c | 467.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 21c | 451.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked No | 77c | 181.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 78c | 107$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911e…78f4backed Yes | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…0febbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…f299backed Yes | 43c | 58.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de3…1b22backed Yes | 23c | 57.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…c9c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 50c | 35.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…9964backed No | 57c | 21.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?this page
- Will Trump say "9/11" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Bus" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Cuomo" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Egg" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Epstein" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Fred" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Hotel" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Little" or "Liddle" during Mamdani events on November 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Marx" or "Marxist" or "Marxism" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Queens" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
- Will Trump say "Working Class" during Mamdani events on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.