TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,439
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,439 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb81…1cf3backed No1c2,000$20 inLost-$2011120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe966…0228backed No74c299$220 inLost-$220.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-72.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed Yes24c225$53 inWon+$172650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No78c220$171 inLost-$171.253240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24d3…e628backed Yes47c214.21$100 inWon+$114.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes34c200$68 inWon+$1322050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0787…d81fbacked No64c174.21$111 inLost-$111.41323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes38c100$38 inWon+$6215032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No25c100$25 inLost-$255028%14 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon+$74862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+94.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed Yes38c100$38 inWon+$62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No64c88$56 inLost-$55.885935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes25c80$20 inWon+$607100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+171.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed Yes40c80$32 inWon+$481060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No51c60$31 inLost-$30.68839.8%35 W · 53 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+141.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes34c44$15 inWon+$29.261747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No64c39.04$25 inLost-$24.8119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes50c30$15 inWon+$151612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed No50c30$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No68c20$14 inLost-$13.63655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No78c20$16 inLost-$15.6666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.