Ukraine · resolved market
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a51830e48b8df53c6aa0aba5d91ae9995774410dfa9f841ef223ee6044b8a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 1c | 5,913$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 9c | 4,233$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.73 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 2,528$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,116$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 79c | 2,100$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 2,098$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.15 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +935.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe4…8970backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 32c | 1,400$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 47c | 1,300$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 16c | 1,144$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 66c | 1,000$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 899.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 36c | 799.97$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 5c | 754.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 748.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 58c | 708.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.79 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 51c | 704.98$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.44 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7ebcbacked Yes | 14c | 655.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 17c | 650.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…d58cbacked Yes | 8c | 630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…4b6fbacked Yes | 46c | 599.98$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed No | 51c | 578.43$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 544.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 51c | 499.79$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 49c | 413$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 54c | 385.19$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed No | 55c | 365.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 64c | 356.75$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 77c | 348.05$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 49c | 345.31$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 8c | 318.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 74c | 316.81$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 50c | 296.28$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 49c | 274.08$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…89a2backed Yes | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed Yes | 28c | 222.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…fa97backed No | 51c | 217.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 54c | 212.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 49c | 202.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…9816backed No | 78c | 200.78$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 200.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…01d2backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 52c | 198.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 64c | 167.88$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…4325backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 56c | 141.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…0eafbacked Yes | 50c | 124.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 74c | 122.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 31c | 119.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…c636backed Yes | 13c | 117.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…88b8backed Yes | 27c | 116.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 50c | 113.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 55c | 110.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 80c | 107.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 43c | 100.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccb…3135backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9768…a99abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…73ffbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3365…b01bbacked Yes | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…0d56backed Yes | 26c | 92.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 75c | 89.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…6caabacked No | 51c | 87.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…15d3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…984dbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765e…9cefbacked Yes | 25c | 79.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 38c | 78.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabed…b14ebacked No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 20c | 71.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…9d7ebacked Yes | 67c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…46a4backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…418abacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…060fbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…d240backed No | 52c | 57.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b05…1483backed Yes | 20c | 56.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…6b24backed Yes | 49c | 54.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?this page
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 10%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 20%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.