Ukraine · resolved market
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f80d444470dc4112bf98515ff0a14ae219d6e5b3b2e4ee48463c9bbcbbedaef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 17,654$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 0c | 6,584$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 6,448$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.54 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,505$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 3,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 3c | 675.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 640$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 616.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 4c | 584.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…7345backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…9d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 332$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…2138backed Yes | 7c | 286.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 5c | 248.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Yes | 5c | 212.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 25%?this page
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 10%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 20%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.