Ukraine · resolved market
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da87130e69d35b9dc413374209b4aa1cc858d0f4727098a456b707eac4be007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,900$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…2138backed Yes | 2c | 2,766$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…2297backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…5bdebacked Yes | 2c | 904.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 812.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…0e66backed Yes | 6c | 532.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…e262backed Yes | 24c | 422.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 16c | 351.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 8c | 345.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…8122backed No | 78c | 325.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 54c | 243.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…9212backed Yes | 24c | 221.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 17c | 217.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…1605backed Yes | 18c | 142.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 41c | 134$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 60c | 123.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 80c | 101.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 34c | 84.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 27c | 82.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 77.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 79c | 65.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…e37cbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…96d7backed No | 72c | 55.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…fb99backed Yes | 66c | 45.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…774cbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…43d1backed Yes | 35c | 35.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…655bbacked No | 64c | 27.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…fd16backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 10%?this page
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 20%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.