Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 45% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f6cc81e111b6d571dd5552e655c925a8c4fc75b72bdb309fa4f4287f5b34b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 15c | 15,681$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 16c | 6,332$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 1,669$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.29 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…21a1backed Yes | 18c | 1,415$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,393$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…d1c9backed Yes | 16c | 1,254$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 15c | 1,190$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…5d65backed Yes | 17c | 1,079$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 1,023$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.64 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,015$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…c67bbacked Yes | 7c | 697.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 75c | 604.55$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 16c | 503$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 441.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes | 14c | 433.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…c52cbacked Yes | 21c | 390.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 351.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…34f2backed Yes | 12c | 344.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa208…aa91backed Yes | 17c | 288.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 12c | 287.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 11c | 278.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Yes | 19c | 268.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +310.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 15c | 261$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 21c | 260$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…70f2backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 14c | 228.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 15c | 216.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…fc45backed No | 80c | 212.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…ed40backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…d27ebacked Yes | 18c | 136.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ec…6b20backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1c…6435backed Yes | 11c | 122.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 12c | 103.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e26…fdefbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…bb3fbacked Yes | 12c | 97.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 86.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 74c | 80.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…6718backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…cf9dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 45% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani get 65% or more of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.