Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e33da0edbd77688d77cfc7d690ef3820f477fae2da685cbc8bdb27265f88d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 3,271$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.8 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 42c | 2,164$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 39c | 1,670$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.88 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 1,656$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.53 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 3c | 1,599$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 1,418$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,183$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.88 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…8145backed Yes | 39c | 1,176$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 30c | 809.21$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.67 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 42c | 711.58$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 572.2$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 9c | 412.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 38c | 350$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…21a1backed Yes | 37c | 339.72$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 39c | 333.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 52c | 307.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Yes | 38c | 265$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…06b0backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 34c | 216.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 36c | 214.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 38c | 202.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 197.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…dfd7backed Yes | 41c | 192.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 36c | 190.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 63c | 158.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…dfbabacked Yes | 41c | 156.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 41c | 155.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 141.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 137.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 27c | 131.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed No | 72c | 131$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…a74abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…9751backed Yes | 54c | 119.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2051…70d1backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 33c | 83.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe137…02f5backed Yes | 38c | 65.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 34c | 62.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 78c | 62.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 57.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 38c | 53.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…9a47backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 71c | 40.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…aae4backed No | 68c | 37.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 68c | 35.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…36babacked Yes | 33c | 33.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…0f66backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 63c | 21.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 21.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…d9b2backed No | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…e784backed No | 69c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani get 65% or more of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 45% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.