TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,903 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf472…a262backed Yes8c36,281$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.51323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes7c8,807$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.471612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Yes27c7,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes3c5,021$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.98837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1247…c139backed Yes1c4,795$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.06450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+73.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc92d…2339backed Yes37c4,028$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes3c2,824$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.71185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes1c2,800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.75129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8d…ed86backed Yes40c1,500$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.751346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c1,398$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5231534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes35c1,396$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0671…d1c9backed Yes16c1,385$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x593c…72debacked Yes32c1,383$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.471513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No74c1,371$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.645151%26 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes17c1,042$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.918114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes5c1,020$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No59c1,000$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4061850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed No65c956.28$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c899.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651041%1 W · 103 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes26c877.4$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.053548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No79c853.89$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2112440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes28c794.62$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7628…b822backed Yes37c786.75$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes31c715.7$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes18c649.65$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.942218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes33c575$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No69c558.95$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4518026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes35c538.93$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.68166.3%1 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.31per pick37cpaid-80.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes22c510.51$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed Yes30c507.21$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff7…aadcbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes30c402.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4589…12adbacked No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b2…21a1backed Yes34c368.46$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No78c362.98$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.234652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes34c350$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes33c332.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.21225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1240…6419backed Yes28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc68f…8fc2backed Yes31c282$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes14c278.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.92817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Yes12c269.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fe…1d08backed Yes21c226$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6778…06b0backed Yes28c222.28$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+103.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c208.35$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5533238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c199.8$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6445035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes8c198.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.564734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…6718backed Yes14c176.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes28c164.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.165738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bb…1329backed Yes32c157.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf301…dd70backed No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No66c120.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.111136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07bf…f9cebacked Yes45c110.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46f…ed40backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe701…942ebacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357d…df3bbacked No70c99.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3303…9266backed No73c89.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick73cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe137…02f5backed Yes31c80.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes28c78.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes26c67.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.558718.4%16 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8351…5861backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ec…6b20backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1c…6435backed Yes28c52.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+1,501.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ee…d693backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No66c46.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9116833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3263…9a47backed Yes28c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes28c44.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.431346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid-3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes34c43.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.664240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c7…06a3backed Yes34c40.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11646.3%4 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…42acbacked No68c37.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb186…310cbacked Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66bf…db18backed Yes35c37.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No65c35.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed No66c35.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf758…ecb8backed No68c34.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed Yes34c32.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8474…3d8dbacked Yes34c32.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6e…a10bbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b11…9d04backed No73c27.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No62c26.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104825%12 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4af…f1c6backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ef…d6a0backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7223…dcc1backed No70c23.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.421155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.