Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani get 65% or more of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x455565f7f61f4dd0cb41d206958d28f54c06b2b3ccfdbc514b1a7d7c8fe4b916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Yes | 0c | 27,566$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,401$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 0c | 11,581$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 10,723$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 0c | 5,188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 2c | 3,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…5dc8backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 2,986$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed Yes | 3c | 1,947$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked Yes | 1c | 1,571$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 2c | 726.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani get 65% or more of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 45% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.