TailMyPicks
Market

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,809 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes38c382.64$145 inLost-$145.251216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No64c217.64$140 inWon+$77.883953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes18c203.81$37 inLost-$37.213040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No66c185.94$122 inWon+$63.662454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes30c135$41 inLost-$40.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed No62c130$80 inWon+$49.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes35c120$42 inLost-$421764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c114.61$71 inWon+$43.214641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc419…1372backed Yes36c111.94$40 inLost-$4040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x486e…62c7backed Yes33c79$26 inLost-$25.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c71…a36dbacked No54c67.24$36 inWon+$30.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked No63c65.08$41 inWon+$24.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c60$38 inWon+$21.67435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500f…d27fbacked Yes41c50$20 inLost-$20.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x740b…647abacked No71c50$35 inWon+$14.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No64c45.08$29 inWon+$16.083161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes36c35$13 inLost-$12.770%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7aee…19eabacked No58c34.6$20 inWon+$14.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No59c34.13$20 inWon+$14.131369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.