Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "China" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0b2fda0b391cc125e2c4e86258dd59eda01f1e9b245f0ee1babb72f1ed73b7

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	2c	823.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes	72c	165.22$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.54	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked No	68c	120$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.6	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a8…e7bcbacked Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	80c	90$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed No	45c	90$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	68cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	55c	90$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No	28c	56$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.14	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	47c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+3.5wins	+0.16per pick	52cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fce…230cbacked Yes	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No	60c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.49	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "China" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event