TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Eight War" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,686 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x853c…bd03backed No58c250$145 inWon+$1051586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x24d3…e628backed Yes72c237.2$170 inLost-$170.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes20c215.84$43 inLost-$42.752222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No60c134.16$80 inWon+$53.661540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes15c129.02$20 inLost-$19.836040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed No31c115$36 inWon+$78.91216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No27c100$27 inWon+$737537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes45c100$45 inLost-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No34c97.05$33 inWon+$64.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes66c70$46 inLost-$46.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes46c50$23 inLost-$23120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c38.05$13 inWon+$25.014641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed Yes75c15.84$12 inLost-$11.88560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.