Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29976eb79023891c70d1eee48cbbec4fcc6b453844cc96aa29e02a35e2c81981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 5,037$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fe…6050backed No | 19c | 2,075$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 15c | 600$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked No | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…acc9backed No | 15c | 229.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…2ed0backed No | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…b15dbacked No | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed No | 16c | 165.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 14c | 138.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 132.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…3b37backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed No | 16c | 111.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 30c | 92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 86.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…d6f1backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 69c | 58.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?Yes won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.