TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Hillary's remarks not air?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,729 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2282…1051backed No0c21,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bc1…89e0backed No18c4,031$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.581216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…ed95backed No15c3,840$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c3,278$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x475a…86abbacked No1c2,769$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc581…de6bbacked No1c2,649$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No15c2,427$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.971729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…9e9fbacked No1c1,989$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No3c1,752$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.08476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No3c1,710$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed No5c1,400$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.54160%0 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b7e…3ddcbacked No1c1,207$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd162…3c35backed No5c986.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes75c900$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.71040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No48c855.65$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.022630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd09e…e177backed No5c747.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked No9c707.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e0…9019backed No5c583.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked No4c541.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f6…bb1ebacked No78c394$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes22c394$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+100.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4660…cda2backed No8c385.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed Yes22c373$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed No78c373$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c359.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No5c343.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.616930.4%21 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadc8…04eebacked No7c324.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes63c315.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6811854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb69…4064backed No4c310.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Yes44c309.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bf…3348backed No8c285.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53166.3%1 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-86.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f9…a3c5backed No10c234.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31cd…47e5backed No13c230$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…da27backed No13c224.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5040…96cfbacked Yes79c210$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked No13c206.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.431020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51d…1578backed No7c205$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed No8c204.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked No10c194.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e0…b9e2backed Yes66c188.73$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.685100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d4…c9c9backed No6c158.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.373148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes73c111.52$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.581338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes78c106.7$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x284e…674ebacked No19c106.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed No79c38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes72c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.981957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes46c28.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.49333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5f…fe90backed No73c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f8…712abacked Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd33…4714backed No79c23.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+34.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x143f…3ef3backed Yes74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.