Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0acaa64ca349128895ffb46d0b431b26664913d3700d97eec6506eb9d4524c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,638 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3959…c73dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked Yes | 1c | 5,988$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 1c | 3,486$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…ec11backed Yes | 0c | 2,901$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…6e8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,451$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…f4eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,327$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…4ebebacked Yes | 1c | 1,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 1,013$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 43c | 1,003$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bf…408ebacked Yes | 1c | 865.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…4fc3backed Yes | 1c | 833.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 32c | 697$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Yes | 20c | 568.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 4c | 513.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 21c | 480.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 56c | 426.35$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 361.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 68c | 352$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 68c | 345$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70eb…0c4dbacked Yes | 25c | 324.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked No | 59c | 322.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44e2…b51abacked Yes | 13c | 311.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b94…8f9ebacked Yes | 3c | 305.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…a9ffbacked Yes | 7c | 210.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d4…c9c9backed Yes | 5c | 200.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 15c | 192.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 12c | 173.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 52c | 146$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 64c | 138.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…5bf8backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 75c | 121$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 18c | 120.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…c06ebacked No | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 113.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…ce20backed Yes | 18c | 110.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…9a0cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…b5d9backed Yes | 19c | 75.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbb…76c8backed Yes | 21c | 70.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…b015backed Yes | 55c | 38.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…13bfbacked Yes | 55c | 25.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony?this page
- Will Hillary say "Daughter" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Donor" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Dress" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Massage" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Monica" or "Lewinsky" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Pam" or "Bondi" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Plane" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Prince" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Secretary" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Six Seven" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Survivor" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Trump" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Under Oath" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Wedding" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "White House" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary's remarks not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.