Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d253412618643f1a7998374c841465e6582cf853228570df48eab09c3bc7f10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,224 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3959…c73dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,436$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…de6bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked Yes | 0c | 6,328$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…9e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,805$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…4870backed Yes | 1c | 3,210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…79e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,536$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes | 3c | 1,476$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…8475backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…47c6backed Yes | 11c | 1,187$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…bef1backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…4ebebacked Yes | 1c | 866.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…6e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 852.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…7f2dbacked Yes | 5c | 220.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…ff62backed Yes | 5c | 203.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…b798backed Yes | 5c | 202.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…e1f6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Yes | 21c | 102.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 79c | 72.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953b…aa67backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…1ec0backed Yes | 18c | 54.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…a3c8backed Yes | 25c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 73c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?this page
- Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Daughter" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Donor" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Dress" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Massage" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Monica" or "Lewinsky" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Pam" or "Bondi" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Plane" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Prince" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Secretary" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Six Seven" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Survivor" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Trump" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Under Oath" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Wedding" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "White House" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary's remarks not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.