Us Politics · resolved market
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x219c119ef1f34219902d9ac7be14f0a431aceca7318ccdc0926f16d880567880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,539 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba0d…fc3abacked Yes | 1c | 13,857$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked Yes | 1c | 6,917$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…4870backed Yes | 2c | 5,279$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…09fdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,221$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…6e8cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,809$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 2,788$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…4fc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,681$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…bb2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,390$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…8973backed Yes | 1c | 2,303$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…e8e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6968…4ff5backed Yes | 1c | 1,071$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,036.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 10c | 1,048$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…f4eebacked Yes | 1c | 925.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 4c | 911.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…7f7ebacked Yes | 1c | 845.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 3c | 835.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…632dbacked Yes | 2c | 817.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 15c | 680$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…ed95backed Yes | 21c | 500.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 58c | 346.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 12c | 334.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…fea2backed Yes | 6c | 317.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 23c | 305.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 285.08$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…134ebacked Yes | 6c | 273.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked Yes | 7c | 271.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…b2e8backed Yes | 8c | 256.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…4bb2backed Yes | 9c | 248.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…d90abacked Yes | 9c | 222.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…d0a1backed Yes | 5c | 203.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…c448backed Yes | 8c | 188.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed Yes | 8c | 171.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 8c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 66c | 137.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…6f9fbacked Yes | 16c | 131$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…b5d9backed Yes | 29c | 125.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 89.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 78c | 84.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 71c | 81.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…717ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes | 66c | 75.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 32c | 74.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 80c | 63.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…4874backed Yes | 39c | 37.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6a…97f2backed Yes | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…167cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?this page
- Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Daughter" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Donor" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Dress" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Massage" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Monica" or "Lewinsky" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Pam" or "Bondi" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Plane" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Prince" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Secretary" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Six Seven" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Survivor" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Trump" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Under Oath" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "Wedding" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary say "White House" during her Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Hillary's remarks not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.