Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6bb4b4ab4a4aa6fa0c96a3c8315ac237d722ec2e2410908af172efc7547dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $487,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 6c | 34,290$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.62 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 6c | 22,909$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.54 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 14c | 12,040$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.96 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 10c | 11,434$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.27 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…c10abacked Yes | 0c | 10,365$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 7c | 9,742$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…2e56backed Yes | 16c | 9,342$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 8,582$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.62 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…afefbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…c96bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,962$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 8c | 5,791$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 5,237$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.62 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,999$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.02 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 5c | 4,370$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 3,389$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.31 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 3,342$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.63 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 0c | 3,269$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 66c | 3,203$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 11c | 2,999$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,757$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 5c | 2,681$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,505$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,214$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.23 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,204$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 13c | 2,163$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,111$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.43 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607e…4011backed Yes | 10c | 2,064$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 34c | 2,064$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.35 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 1,965$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,923$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed Yes | 7c | 1,800$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked Yes | 10c | 1,756$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 1,745$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 1,701$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 24c | 1,607$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,528$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,510$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0849backed Yes | 12c | 1,476$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…d13bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,471$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked Yes | 10c | 1,435$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…2264backed No | 77c | 1,421$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 17c | 1,399$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.41 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 1,370$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,295$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…fd32backed Yes | 8c | 1,163$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 62c | 1,116$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 68c | 1,111$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 1,108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 1,082$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.99 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…3526backed Yes | 19c | 1,079$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…2159backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 69c | 998.13$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 50c | 937.57$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.78 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 13c | 862.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 848.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…e020backed Yes | 8c | 839.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 12c | 820.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed Yes | 16c | 811.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2268…458ebacked Yes | 1c | 788.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…11d9backed Yes | 6c | 787.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 7c | 749.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 20c | 709.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 10c | 699.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8517…e731backed No | 72c | 679.99$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…dc73backed Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 644.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…afe2backed Yes | 10c | 640$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 7c | 629.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 74c | 629.53$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…ff48backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 30c | 617.36$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.13 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 72c | 605.92$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 65c | 592.28$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 68c | 588.09$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.74 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 19c | 574.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes | 9c | 557.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 534.23$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes | 20c | 523.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 11c | 516.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 22c | 509.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…ec8cbacked Yes | 8c | 505.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 26c | 501$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.