Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e42fd31dcc86eb7b64893f5472e8423c961952d4e05cb457c894b4b294f28be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e25…0575backed No | 54c | 35,764$19,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,312.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…b598backed Yes | 46c | 35,764$16,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,312.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 3,667$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.48 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 78c | 2,648$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 33c | 2,383$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.67 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 2,254$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.37 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 5c | 1,848$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.42 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 34c | 1,603$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.4 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…42e9backed Yes | 38c | 1,567$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…2bdcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,116$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 19c | 862.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.67 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked Yes | 27c | 763.11$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.71 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 691.67$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.16 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 73c | 607.01$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 47c | 550$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 510.3$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.17 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…7888backed Yes | 26c | 462.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 460.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.47 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 28c | 452.37$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.41 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 19c | 445.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 5c | 426.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 413.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…4453backed Yes | 13c | 385.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +670.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 35c | 367.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.92 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 25c | 361.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.56 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 71c | 360$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…2341backed Yes | 30c | 296.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes | 7c | 283.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +254.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 23c | 253.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.73 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd434…ebd2backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 245.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.61 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 6c | 233.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…cc4cbacked Yes | 28c | 228$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 6c | 225.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 9c | 224.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.13 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 13c | 224.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 56c | 223.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…a476backed Yes | 64c | 220.69$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 18c | 200.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.61 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 6c | 197.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 18c | 190$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…7b9bbacked Yes | 55c | 181.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 17c | 171.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…0ae8backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 155.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 29c | 144$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1c…78bcbacked Yes | 17c | 139.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +183.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 14c | 132.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 61c | 131.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 9c | 117.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…297fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 11c | 96.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…b6c1backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 61c | 81.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 55c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…c586backed Yes | 67c | 74.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 72.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 19c | 69.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…68e3backed Yes | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…4184backed Yes | 46c | 65.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…e58fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa378…1927backed Yes | 36c | 56.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked Yes | 67c | 55.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3d5bbacked Yes | 63c | 48.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…30aabacked Yes | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…8f8dbacked Yes | 64c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…29e4backed Yes | 78c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…d086backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…d932backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 63c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 25-29 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 30-34 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 35-39 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 45-49 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 50 or more executive orders in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.