Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205a944ac0c5024b93d56f9de72685db3c648bf942b64447d115d88ca2e948a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3499…4f27backed No | 76c | 47,517$36,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,404.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…0686backed Yes | 24c | 47,517$11,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,404.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…d15dbacked No | 62c | 33,856$20,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,865.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7282…18c8backed Yes | 38c | 33,856$12,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,865.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 4c | 3,548$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 3,440$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.02 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,300$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,203$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,065$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 37c | 999.96$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 46c | 980.85$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.5 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 3c | 732.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.05 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 3c | 505.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 18c | 502.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 34c | 466$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.63 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 38c | 400$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 19c | 360.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 51c | 327.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 325.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 36c | 306.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…ba8dbacked No | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 14c | 289$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 37c | 228.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes | 18c | 220$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +254.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 187$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 65c | 174.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 39c | 138.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 18c | 132.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 22c | 126.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 21c | 117.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 76c | 110.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 18c | 94.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…638fbacked Yes | 38c | 92.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 33c | 89.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 33c | 88.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 72.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 45c | 44.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 43.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80f…428fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 32c | 39.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa378…1927backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 36c | 29.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in May?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 25-29 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 30-34 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 35-39 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 45-49 executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 50 or more executive orders in May?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.