Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x321c3b48d18f6576c5a9ca490b49e8964f5118432dc02ccd55fe1ad2ca182c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 25bps cutof No Change, 25bps cut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed No Change | 0c | 33,789$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No Change | 5c | 18,312$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No Change | 4c | 15,978$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34e…239fbacked No Change | 0c | 10,387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed No Change | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed No Change | 5c | 9,017$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…b12abacked No Change | 2c | 8,249$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…20c7backed No Change | 0c | 8,236$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…05ddbacked No Change | 4c | 8,124$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No Change | 3c | 7,316$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…3ce4backed No Change | 5c | 6,264$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…3b83backed No Change | 1c | 6,186$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed No Change | 11c | 5,663$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No Change | 2c | 5,425$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked No Change | 3c | 5,258$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No Change | 5c | 5,100$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No Change | 1c | 4,556$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed No Change | 12c | 4,127$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…957bbacked No Change | 1c | 3,451$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No Change | 1c | 2,856$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked No Change | 2c | 2,812$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…8c56backed No Change | 4c | 2,550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…e850backed No Change | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…1467backed No Change | 4c | 2,352$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed No Change | 6c | 2,280$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No Change | 5c | 2,229$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No Change | 1c | 2,222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No Change | 6c | 2,205$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No Change | 6c | 2,167$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…067ebacked 25bps cut | 77c | 2,026$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No Change | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed No Change | 1c | 1,951$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed No Change | 3c | 1,714$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…f4c4backed No Change | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…b940backed No Change | 3c | 1,232$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No Change | 1c | 1,207$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…9012backed No Change | 8c | 1,020$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No Change | 3c | 951.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No Change | 3c | 925.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…abd1backed No Change | 2c | 920.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a2…5643backed No Change | 3c | 885.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…e281backed No Change | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed No Change | 30c | 744.57$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked No Change | 3c | 716.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…1267backed No Change | 2c | 699.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed No Change | 2c | 683.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…f184backed No Change | 17c | 624.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550a…f85ebacked No Change | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No Change | 4c | 555.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…b6f1backed No Change | 4c | 553.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked No Change | 20c | 539.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed No Change | 4c | 530.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No Change | 5c | 528.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed No Change | 4c | 514.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked No Change | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ad…f540backed No Change | 4c | 511.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed No Change | 6c | 510.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No Change | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No Change | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…a303backed No Change | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…7975backed No Change | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No Change | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No Change | 5c | 431$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed No Change | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fc…5f16backed No Change | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb0…6319backed No Change | 8c | 373.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…270cbacked No Change | 4c | 360.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa730…dd50backed No Change | 5c | 336.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked No Change | 8c | 313.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…ea81backed No Change | 13c | 310.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No Change | 4c | 310$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed No Change | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccb…3135backed No Change | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No Change | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No Change | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0648…ebc1backed No Change | 7c | 284.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…11cdbacked No Change | 4c | 280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…7e3dbacked No Change | 5c | 265.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…8122backed No Change | 8c | 258.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed No Change | 4c | 250.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No Change | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…9dfdbacked No Change | 32c | 250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…dfa1backed No Change | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No Change | 5c | 216.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…8a7ebacked 25bps cut | 66c | 203.44$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed 25bps cut | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked No Change | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed No Change | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No Change | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No Change | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No Change | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed No Change | 6c | 196.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked No Change | 14c | 192.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…04debacked No Change | 7c | 176.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…0f09backed 25bps cut | 69c | 153.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…14dcbacked 25bps cut | 68c | 147.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No Change | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed No Change | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No Change | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed 25bps cut | 64c | 112.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.