Us Midterms · resolved market
Will no one drop out first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3333df824dc92c055eecd26bf8be70da24c7f3db8999105802b95d8722bf225c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 29c | 11,509$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.51 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 67c | 5,427$3,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…0845backed Yes | 44c | 5,424$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 25c | 2,105$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 20c | 1,673$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.37 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 35c | 1,478$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.48 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 1,331$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.07 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 26c | 1,111$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.86 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…021ebacked Yes | 22c | 940$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 73c | 830.52$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 772.08$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.89 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…621bbacked Yes | 34c | 581.35$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 36c | 524.05$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 70c | 496.4$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 4c | 329.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 23c | 324$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 36c | 315.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 46c | 310.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 24c | 246.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 24c | 201.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…cdf6backed Yes | 39c | 190$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…7b1abacked No | 52c | 135.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 28c | 122.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 33c | 121.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…b39dbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 67c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 34c | 104.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 103.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 102.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 64c | 101.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…b1babacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…6473backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…9465backed Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217b…bfcdbacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 54.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…18d8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Yes | 47c | 25.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no one drop out first?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo drop out first?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out first?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out first?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.