Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Eric Adams drop out first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x949737b9affe3515527e5933769eb757b157716433ef875faae53a617bff1315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 69c | 10,363$7,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 58c | 9,834$5,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.02 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,138$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 73c | 6,054$4,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 5,224$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.87 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed No | 31c | 5,061$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 39c | 3,609$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.12 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…a343backed Yes | 72c | 3,555$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 43c | 3,317$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 43c | 3,268$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 2,813$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.63 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 22c | 2,158$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 63c | 2,119$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.06 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 79c | 1,804$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 69c | 1,385$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.2 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,380$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.54 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 873.25$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.71 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 58c | 857$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.82 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 64c | 845.16$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 10c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 34c | 514.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 66c | 494.63$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2497backed No | 36c | 481.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 452.36$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.93 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…26c9backed No | 46c | 431.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 36c | 381.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 74c | 297.35$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 72c | 291$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 65c | 290$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 41c | 281.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes | 75c | 276.64$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 52c | 259.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 39c | 238.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 67c | 215$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…4673backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 42c | 211.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 55c | 207.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 55c | 180.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 6c | 178.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 39c | 154.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 37c | 132.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…8ac8backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 33c | 119.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…487cbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…1fe2backed No | 50c | 96.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 48c | 80.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 41c | 77.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 77.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 49c | 75.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 59c | 72.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…f44abacked No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 32c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…ac19backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7480…acc1backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…56fabacked Yes | 73c | 37.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…bc00backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…2ba5backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…dbf9backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…029abacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 57c | 24.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…b7bdbacked No | 52c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd62…7785backed Yes | 50c | 24.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 68c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…950fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…7aaabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 66c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eric Adams drop out first?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo drop out first?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out first?No won
- Will no one drop out first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.