Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0feea227d314d6dc4042c4417d5207bf609d0abc27b5026cb865e8ee9e7e19fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 2c | 12,583$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 2c | 11,547$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd1…b0fbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,946$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 2c | 2,979$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,557$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…26c9backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 976.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 3c | 768$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes | 2c | 738.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 552$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 544.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 402$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo drop out first?this page
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out first?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out first?Yes won
- Will no one drop out first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.