NFL · resolved market
Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57717dacdfd36ac60c174e80b78d05138fc7ab6417b9a92c15f23b87173f0a88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,695$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 41c | 1,209$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 41c | 1,099$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…f944backed Yes | 25c | 1,056$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 41c | 975$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 59c | 680$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 42c | 630$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 58c | 613$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 59c | 567$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 59c | 556$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 59c | 402$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 42c | 361$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 59c | 333$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 59c | 328$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 42c | 252$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked No | 59c | 229$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 59c | 141$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 42c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 25c | 51.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 76c | 41.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…fb6abacked No | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…9754backed No | 58c | 29.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?this page
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.