NFL · resolved market
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x665feff4bc8b458ecc8a7acb0eae4e814ebf04e424c825528bf18800906cb828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 32c | 10,737$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,404.17 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,354$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked No | 33c | 1,057$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 992.14$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 846.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…b7f6backed Yes | 56c | 648.79$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 18c | 621$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 520$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 18c | 376$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 370.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Yes | 66c | 321.71$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 17c | 321$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 310$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 17c | 273$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 208.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 45c | 199.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 160.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 153.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 33c | 153.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 76c | 112$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…379abacked No | 19c | 111.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 110.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd5…be73backed No | 33c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…3990backed No | 33c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…628bbacked No | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…2475backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 28c | 89.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…0e04backed No | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…8279backed Yes | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 68c | 87.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…43a6backed Yes | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 69c | 85.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…5fcabacked No | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…04f3backed Yes | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519b…6821backed Yes | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd11…c4c1backed No | 33c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508c…f5bcbacked Yes | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9beb…2f44backed Yes | 69c | 68.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 66c | 65.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Yes | 76c | 58.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…02ebbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 72c | 57.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 53.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144e…a61cbacked No | 31c | 52.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…f261backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +243.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…929fbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…2022backed Yes | 74c | 47.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…4d60backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…090fbacked Yes | 29c | 34.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…fd6cbacked Yes | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…3ca8backed Yes | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…57cabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…3066backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…bf0abacked Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Yes | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…bb7abacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.