NFL · resolved market
Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40808d691266db996644c54644cf135df7043cab6b410f6065761a03544da2c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked No | 68c | 7,588$5,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,369$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 32c | 3,564$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.07 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,924$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.22 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 981.91$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 33c | 879.12$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.99 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Yes | 33c | 872.67$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 849.19$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.55 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…ae59backed Yes | 21c | 479.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 16c | 474$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 16c | 465$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 15c | 394$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes | 15c | 370$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 15c | 271$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 174.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 153.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 16c | 138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 133.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 124.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 71c | 88.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe2…42d4backed No | 69c | 87.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…e2d7backed No | 69c | 71.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 21c | 65.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…1b3cbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed No | 69c | 53.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 31c | 44.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 79c | 40.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…daf0backed No | 70c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked No | 69c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…3066backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.